A PROPOSAL TO WEIGHT U.S. SENATE VOTES BASED
ON THE HOUSE’S
REPRESENTATION
Stepping away from my usual concentration on court cases:
The U.S. Senate is gerrymandered according to the compromise
reached back in 1787. It does not
represent anything remotely like representation on the basis of one person one
vote.
A modest proposal
In the original Article 1 Section 3, as incorporated without
change into the 17th Amendment (Senators elected by popular vote,
not by state legislatures) is the sentence:
“(1) The
Senate of the United States shall be composed of two Senators from each State,
elected by the people thereof for six years; and each Senator shall have one
vote.”
Replace it with “(1) The Senate of the United States shall
be composed of two Senators from each State, elected by the people thereof for
six years; and each Senator shall have one vote that when cast in a floor vote shall
be given a weight of one half of the number of seats then allocated to the
Senator’s state in the House of Representatives.
The effect of the change would be that the weighted votes with
all Senators voting would equal in
number the votes of all members of the House of Representatives. The 100
Senators could cast weighted votes totaling 435. (the present size of the House).
This is somewhat analogous to the votes of a corporate Board
of Directors each having one voice, but each casting votes only for the shares they
own or represent.
Under this proposal, each State still has two Senators. Each Senator has an equal right to debate,
and to cast a vote. In committees, each
Senator’s vote would be equal. Each Senator casts one unsplit vote. But each Senator’s voting power in
floor sessions when legislation is passed or defeated is based, approximately, on the number of people they
represent, as is appropriate in a democracy.
Analysis
The spreadsheet below analyzes the current misrepresentation
and the effect of the change.
The degree to which current Senate might not reflect
majority rule, or any particularly rational system is profound:
-
51 or 52 Senators, could pass legislation or
confirm appointments requiring a majority vote, while representing 19 percent
of the population even if Senators representing 81 percent of the population were
against it. Equally, Senators
representing 80 percent of the people might not command a majority in the
Senate.
-
60 Senators could overcome a filibuster while representing
only 24 percent of the population as represented in the House.
-
A successful vote for conviction of impeachment could
attain 67 Senators whose House representation is just 30 % of the people.
-
If the vote were otherwise evenly split, the 10
senators who could make the difference in overcoming a filibuster could
represent as few as 1.4% of the people (as allocated to House seats) or as much
as 67%.
The partisan effect
Of course, the above is theoretical. The partisan breakdown of the Senate does not
fall into small state-large--state criteria.
At present there are 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats and 2 Independents. The independents generally vote with the
Democrats and are treated as such in the attached spreadsheet. There being 100 senators, these numbers are
also the percentages.
If the current Senators votes were weighted as proposed, the
Democrats’ and independents’ vote would “weigh” 230.5, and the Republicans
204.5. (Total 435). That would reverse
the 53% to 47% currently favoring the Republicans to a 53% weighted votes for
the Democrats to 47% for the Republicans.
This tracks reasonably closely to the 2016 presidential vote when, excluding
the almost 7% independents, the
Democratic presidential candidate, Hillary Clinton, received 51.11 % of the
vote, and Republican, Donald Trump, received 48.89%.
When needing 218 votes for a majority, Democrats could pass
legislation and still enjoy an additional margin from the Senators from West
Virginia, Hawaii, New Hampshire, Maine, Rhode Island and Vermont.
Big states, little states, and super-majorities.
If Senate rules continued to demand super-majorities then
bi-partisanship would be necessary to pass anything, just as it is now.
Examples If a total
of 60% of weighted votes (261) were needed, the Democrats would need the assent
of as few as three of the four Republican Senators representing the populations
of Texas and Florida, or as many as all of
the Republican Senators representing the sparser populations of Utah, Iowa, Arkansas,
Mississippi, Kansas, Nebraska, Idaho, West Virginia, Maine, Montana, South
Dakota, North Dakota, and Alaska.
Impeachment conviction would remain about as out of reach as
it was in the 2019-2020 session.
Conversely, Republicans relying on the largest states, could
gain a majority of weighted votes with the assistance of one California Senator, or conversely need Democratic Senators from the
smaller states starting with New Mexico.
Relying on the largest states to obtain 60% they would need the
assistance of two California Senators, and one Democrat from any state larger
than Nevada. To rely on the smallest
states, they’d need one Democratic Senator from Massachusetts, and the
Democratic Senators from all states smaller than that.
The Article V Issue
Aside from the obvious difficulties of getting ratification
of this or any other amendment, Article V, of the Constitution, in describing
the amendment process, stipulates that “…[N]o State, without its Consent, shall
be deprived of its equal Suffrage in the Senate.”
Article V would, no doubt, be raised by opponents, however
the proposal would probably be sufficient to overcome this bar. Each state retains its two senators, and each
has “one vote”. Only floor votes, not
votes in committees are affected.
Further, if a state did not consent to the weighting provision, rules
could allow it the “equal suffrage” of one vote, while continuing to weigh the
others so that legislation would reflect the results of electoral
democracy.
The effect of making some Senatorial elections more
significant than others
Because the large-state Senators would wield more power in passing
legislation, it is quite probable that more money and effort would flow to
those contests. On reflection, this is
reasonable and desirable, certainly more so than having equal amounts used to
overwhelm the votes in smaller states because they elect equally powerful
senators.
The main effect would be to give to each American voter far
greater equality in selecting the representatives who make decisions in the
United States government.
Peter Liederman